The global long-term care market is witnessing significant growth as healthcare systems worldwide grapple with unprecedented demographic aging, rising prevalence of chronic conditions, and persistent workforce shortages. Long-term care encompasses formal, paid services delivered across
home healthcare, nursing care and skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, hospice and
palliative care, and other specialized services for individuals requiring sustained support with activities of daily living. These services are utilized by older persons, individuals with disabilities, and those with chronic illnesses across home, community, and institutional settings in all regions.
According to the research report, "Global Long Term Care Market Outlook, 2031," published by Bonafide Research, the Global Long Term Care Market was valued at more than USD 952 Billion in 2025, and is expected to reach a market size of more than USD 1768 Billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 6.12% from 2026 to 2031. The global long-term care market is projected to expand significantly during the forecast period from 2026 to 2031, supported by the rising global burden of chronic diseases, increasing life expectancy, growing elderly population, persistent workforce shortages, and improving access to formal care services.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the global population aged 60 years and older is projected to double from 1.4 billion in 2025 to 2.1 billion by 2050, with the number of persons aged 80 years or older expected to triple between 2020 and 2050 to reach 426 million. An estimated 250 million people globally need long-term care, yet fewer than half receive adequate support, with most care falling to unpaid family members, predominantly women. The International Labour Organization (ILO) projects that investment in coverage and improvement of long-term care services could generate up to 50.9 million jobs globally by 2030, with an additional 13.9 million jobs created in sectors beyond health and long-term care.
Unprecedented Global Demographic Aging Driving Long-Term Care Market Expansion
The increasing global elderly population represents the primary growth driver for the long-term care market. Healthcare systems across all regions face mounting demand for care services as the number of people aged 65 and above more than doubles from approximately 750 million in 2025 to over 1.5 billion by 2050. The share of people needing long-term care across OECD countries is expected to increase from 11.6% in 2020 to 14.1% by 2070, pushing public expenditure from 1.7% to 2.6% of GDP. Germany's care-dependent population nearly doubled from 3.0 million in 2015 to 5.7 million in 2023. Japan's long-term care costs reached ?14.3 trillion in fiscal 2025 and are projected to reach ?27.6 trillion by 2040. China's population aged 60 and above reached 323.38 million at the end of 2025, representing 23.0% of the total population.
The prevalence of chronic conditions, cognitive impairment, and functional limitations among older persons creates sustained demand for long-term care services across all care settings. According to the WHO, the global population aged 60 and older is projected to reach 2.1 billion by 2050, driving sustained demand for care services. The aging of the population i+s not a temporary phenomenon but a structural transformation that will continue to drive long-term care demand for decades.
Nursing Care and Skilled Nursing Facilities Segment Dominates Due to High Acuity Needs
Among service categories, Nursing Care and Skilled Nursing Facilities represent the largest segment of the global long-term care market, accounting for around half of health and social long-term care spending across OECD countries. The United States has approximately 14,742 federally certified nursing facilities serving approximately 1.2 million residents as of July 2025. Germany has approximately 800,000 people living in full inpatient care. France has 7,302 EHPAD with 609,983 places. Japan has 8,621 special nursing homes with 604,469 capacity and a 94.5% occupancy rate. China has 7.679 million elderly care beds, with nursing beds accounting for 69.9% of the total. The segment faces significant workforce challenges, with over 64% of Japan's special nursing homes reporting staff shortages and Australia needing nearly 120,000 more aged care staff by 2035/36.
Home Healthcare represents the fastest-growing service segment, driven by the strong preference for aging in place and government policies promoting community-based care. In the United States, 87% of the 9.7 million Medicaid LTSS users in 2023 received services in home- and community-based settings. In Germany, 86.2% of care-dependent people lived in outpatient settings in 2023, with 9 out of 10 living in their own homes in 2025. In South Korea, home-based care grew by 10.3% in 2025, outpacing the 8.0% rise in institutional care. Australia's Home Care Packages rose to 292,911, an increase of 17,425. China's 14th Five-Year Plan period saw the cumulative construction of 570,000 home-based elderly care beds.
Public Payers Lead Funding in Mature Markets, Private Sector Grows Rapidly
Public payers are the dominant funding source across mature markets globally, with four out of five dollars spent on long-term care across OECD countries coming from public sources. In Germany, the social long-term care insurance system covers 6.01 million beneficiaries with expenditures reaching €73.8 billion in 2025. In Japan, the long-term care insurance system covers 6.01 million beneficiaries with costs of ?14.3 trillion in fiscal 2025. In South Korea, the National
Health Insurance Service covered 91.4% of the total benefit burden at 16.1618 trillion won in 2025. In the United States, public sources paid for 69.4% of LTSS spending in 2023, with Medicaid and Medicare accounting for a combined 63.6%. In Canada, approximately 78% of long-term care costs are publicly funded.
Private sources account for a growing portion of long-term care spending globally. In France, the top 15 EHPAD operators manage 108,000 beds, with private equity firms increasingly investing in the sector. In Spain, private sector investment in senior living is growing, with care bed capacity needing to increase from 384,000 to 616,000 by 2033. In the UK, private care home operators dominate the sector, with average EBITDARM margins growing to 30.1% in 2025. In China, approximately 26,000 private hospitals represent 68% of all hospitals. In India, the senior living market is attracting significant private investment, with the organised supply of senior citizen homes at 22,157 units as of June 2025.
Female Cohort Dominates Due to Longer Life Expectancy and Caregiving Roles
Women account for the largest share of long-term care spending globally, driven by higher life expectancy and higher rates of disability in advanced age. In France, about 7 out of 10 women and 4 out of 10 men use APA during retirement, with women spending approximately 10% of their retirement period in dependency. In Spain, women over 80 are the predominant profile of SAAD beneficiaries, with 62% of applications submitted by women and 72% of non-professional caregivers being women. In Germany, women represent approximately 61.1% of all people in need of care. In Japan, women represented 20.51 million of the elderly population (65+), exceeding men by 4.83 million, with 4.987 million women among the 7.354 million certified care recipients. In South Africa, older women continue to outnumber older men, with just 65 older men for every 100 older women in 2025. In Argentina, the feminisation of ageing is a significant phenomenon, with women aged 75 and above representing almost 6% of the total female population compared with 4% of men.
Regional Analysis
North America represents the largest regional market for long-term care, driven by advanced healthcare infrastructure,
high healthcare expenditure, and mature long-term care industries. The United States accounts for the majority of regional spending, with total spending on long-term services and supports reaching $563.7 billion in 2023, representing 13.7% of all personal health care spending. The region operates over 14,742 federally certified nursing facilities in the United States and over 2,000 licensed long-term care homes in Canada with approximately 200,000 beds. Canada could need an additional 199,000 long-term care beds by 2035, nearly doubling current capacity. Mexico represents an emerging opportunity with rapid demographic aging, government workforce expansion programs, and growing private sector demand.
Europe represents the second-largest regional market, with Germany operating the largest statutory long-term care insurance system in Europe with 6.01 million beneficiaries and expenditures reaching €73.8 billion in 2025. Spain represents the fastest-growing European market, with 1.78 million people with recognised dependency at the end of 2025 and care bed capacity needing to increase from approximately 384,000 to around 616,000 by 2033. France has approximately 1.5 million dependent elderly people, with APA beneficiaries projected to increase from 1.4 to 1.6 million by 2030. The United Kingdom's adult social care expenditure reached ?34.5 billion in 2024/25, with approximately 17,000 care homes providing 529,000–550,000 registered beds. The Netherlands has the highest long-term care spending as a percentage of GDP among OECD countries at 4.1%. Italy faces significant infrastructure and affordability challenges, with public long-term care spending declining from 1.43% of GDP in 2020 to 1.18% in 2024.
Asia-Pacific represents the fastest-growing long-term care market globally, driven by the world's largest elderly population, the nationwide expansion of long-term care insurance in China, and massive government investment in care infrastructure. Japan has the most mature long-term care insurance system in the world, with 6.01 million beneficiaries and total costs reaching ?14.3 trillion in fiscal 2025. China's long-term care insurance system has expanded from 15 pilot cities in 2016 to 92 cities by the end of 2025, covering 308.55 million insured persons with cumulative fund spending exceeding 100 billion yuan, benefiting more than 3.3 million disabled individuals. South Korea formally entered super-aged society status in 2025, with 10.72 million elderly residents accounting for 20.7% of the population. Australia implemented the new Aged Care Act and the Support at Home program on 1 November 2025. India's elderly population of 153 million is projected to more than double to 347 million by 2050.
South America represents an emerging but rapidly evolving regional market, with Brazil having 35.2 million people aged 60 and above in 2025, representing 16.6% of the total population, and approximately 7,000 long-term care institutions serving around 160,000 residents. Colombia represents the fastest-growing South American market, with CONPES 4143 approved in February 2025 establishing a National Care Policy with 133 actions and an indicative budget of 25.6 trillion pesos over ten years. Argentina has approximately 3,800 registered geriatric homes, with the vast majority being privately operated.
The Middle East & Africa region represents one of the most diverse regional markets, with South Africa having 6.6 million people aged 60 and above in 2025, representing 10.5% of the total population, and a well-established network of registered long-term care facilities governed by the Older Persons Act of 2006. The UAE represents the fastest-growing Middle East & Africa market, with the launch of the National Framework for Healthy Ageing 2025–2031 and the Barakatna initiative. Israel operates the most mature long-term care market in the region, with a universal insurance-based system established in 1988.
Future Outlook
The global long-term care market is expected to maintain strong growth through 2031 as healthcare systems continue prioritizing workforce solutions to address persistent staffing shortages and rising demand for care services. Increasing adoption of technology-enabled care management, expansion of home- and community-based services, and growth of private sector investment will continue transforming the long-term care landscape. The WHO projects a shortfall of approximately 10 million health workers by 2030. The global population aged 60 and older is projected to reach 2.1 billion by 2050, driving sustained demand for long-term care services. Expansion of care infrastructure, improved workforce planning, and increasing adoption of flexible care models in emerging economies will create additional opportunities for market expansion.
As the global burden of chronic diseases continues rising and healthcare systems face persistent workforce shortages, long-term care solutions will remain a critical component of healthcare delivery by ensuring adequate care levels, maintaining quality of life for older persons, and supporting the effective functioning of care systems worldwide. The shift toward home- and community-based care, the growth of technology-enabled care models, and the expansion of private sector investment will shape the market through 2031 and beyond.
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