Global Obesity Drugs Market Outlook, 2031

The global obesity drugs industry covers prescription medicines for chronic weight management in adults and adolescents with obesity or overweight and related health conditions. The market was transformed by incretin-based therapies, led by Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, sold as Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic for type 2 diabetes, and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, sold as Zepbound for obesity and Mounjaro for diabetes. These drugs mimic gut hormones that regulate appetite and blood sugar, producing average weight loss of about 15% to more than 20% in clinical trials, far greater than earlier medicines such as orlistat, phentermine-topiramate and naltrexone-bupropion. Oral options arrived in 2025 and 2026, as the FDA approved a pill form of Wegovy in December 2025 and Lilly's orforglipron, marketed as Foundayo, in April 2026. Other developers include Amgen, with its monthly antibody-peptide conjugate MariTide; Roche, following its acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics; Pfizer, after acquiring Metsera in late 2025; AstraZeneca; Boehringer Ingelheim and Zealand Pharma with survodutide; Viking Therapeutics; Structure Therapeutics; and many Chinese companies such as Innovent, whose mazdutide was approved in China in 2025, and Hengrui. Compounding pharmacies, telehealth providers and, from 2026, generic semaglutide manufacturers in India, China, Canada and Brazil have also become significant market participants. The obesity drug market has grown faster than almost any drug category in history. Demand for Wegovy after its 2021 approval, and later for Zepbound after its November 2023 approval, exceeded supply for years, leading to shortages, rationing and a large compounded drug market in the United States that the FDA began to curtail after declaring the shortages over in December 2024 for tirzepatide and February 2025 for semaglutide. The drugs gained additional indications, including cardiovascular risk reduction for Wegovy in March 2024, obstructive sleep apnoea for Zepbound in December 2024 and MASH for Wegovy in August 2025, strengthening the case for insurance coverage. Access and pricing became political issues. In November 2025, Lilly and Novo Nordisk reached agreements with the US government to lower prices for Medicare, Medicaid and cash-paying patients and to allow Medicare coverage for obesity from 2026, while both companies expanded direct-to-consumer sales through LillyDirect and NovoCare. Competition intensified as Lilly overtook Novo Nordisk in market share, leading to leadership changes and job cuts at Novo in 2025, and a bidding war between Pfizer and Novo for Metsera in late 2025. The market's global structure changed on 20 March 2026, when semaglutide's core patents expired in India, China, Brazil and other countries, triggering launches of low-cost generics by Indian manufacturers such as Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, Zydus and Glenmark. Market Dynamics Market Drivers • High and Rising Prevalence of ObesityMore than one billion people worldwide live with obesity, according to a 2024 Lancet analysis, and prevalence continues to rise in almost every country, including rapidly in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Obesity increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, sleep apnoea, fatty liver disease, osteoarthritis and some cancers, and imposes large costs on health systems. Recognition of obesity as a chronic disease requiring medical treatment is increasing demand for effective drugs. • Proven Efficacy and Expanding Health BenefitsIncretin-based drugs produce weight loss far greater than older medicines and approach the results of bariatric surgery for some patients. Outcome trials have shown benefits beyond weight, including reduced heart attacks and strokes, improved sleep apnoea, fatty liver disease, kidney disease and heart failure symptoms. These results strengthen the case for coverage by insurers and governments and expand the number of patients for whom treatment is recommended. Market Challenges • Cost, Coverage and AffordabilityList prices of injectable obesity drugs in the United States have exceeded USD 1,000 a month, and many insurers, employers and government programmes have limited or excluded coverage. Long-term treatment is often needed to maintain weight loss, raising lifetime costs. Although price cuts, direct-to-consumer offers and Medicare coverage from 2026 have improved access, affordability remains a major barrier globally, and public health systems in Europe restrict use to patients with more severe obesity. • Side Effects, Discontinuation and Weight RegainGastrointestinal side effects, including nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and constipation, are common and cause some patients to stop treatment. Rare risks include pancreatitis and gallbladder disease, and concerns have been raised about muscle loss and certain eye conditions. Many patients discontinue within a year because of cost or side effects, and most regain weight after stopping, raising questions about long-term value and adherence. Market Trends • Oral Drugs and Global Generic CompetitionOral obesity drugs, including Wegovy in pill form and orforglipron, which can be taken without food restrictions, are expanding the market to patients who prefer not to inject and could be manufactured at larger scale. At the same time, semaglutide patent expiry in India, China, Brazil, Canada and other markets in 2026 has brought generic versions at a fraction of branded prices, while the United States, Europe and Japan remain protected into the early 2030s. • Next-Generation Multi-Agonists and Muscle-Preserving TherapiesDevelopers are pursuing drugs that combine several hormone targets for greater weight loss, including Lilly's triple agonist retatrutide, which produced very large weight loss in trials, Novo's CagriSema, amylin analogues such as cagrilintide and petrelintide, and monthly injectables such as MariTide. Companies are also testing combinations designed to preserve muscle mass, and longer-acting formulations to improve adherence and maintenance of weight loss. Segment Analysis GLP-1 receptor agonists and dual GIP/GLP-1 agonists account for the vast majority of obesity drug value, while older weight-loss drugs have become a small share and next-generation agents represent the main source of future growth. GLP-1 receptor agonists, led by semaglutide and liraglutide, reduce appetite and slow gastric emptying, and semaglutide sold as Wegovy became the first blockbuster obesity drug. Oral GLP-1 agonists, including oral semaglutide and the small-molecule orforglipron, expand options for patients who prefer pills. Dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonists, led by tirzepatide sold as Zepbound, produce greater average weight loss and have become the largest selling obesity drug class in the United States. Dual GLP-1 and glucagon receptor agonists, including mazdutide, approved in China, and survodutide, aim to enhance weight loss and liver fat reduction. Amylin analogues and combinations, including cagrilintide with semaglutide in CagriSema and standalone amylin drugs, are in late development. Triple agonists, such as retatrutide, target GIP, GLP-1 and glucagon receptors. Older anti-obesity drugs, including orlistat, phentermine, phentermine-topiramate and naltrexone-bupropion, are still used, especially where newer drugs are unaffordable. Setmelanotide treats rare genetic obesity disorders. Compounded and generic semaglutide and tirzepatide products form separate segments with different regulatory status in each country. Treatments to preserve muscle, such as activin receptor antibodies, are being tested with incretin drugs. Subcutaneous injections account for most obesity drug value today, while oral formulations are the fastest-growing route following approvals in 2025 and 2026. Once-weekly subcutaneous injections, delivered by prefilled pens, are the standard route for semaglutide and tirzepatide and account for most current obesity drug revenue. Daily injections, such as liraglutide sold as Saxenda, were used earlier and are now available as generics in some markets. Vials of tirzepatide and semaglutide sold directly to consumers by the manufacturers at lower prices have expanded self-pay access in the United States. Oral tablets have become an important new route, with the Wegovy pill approved in December 2025 and launched in January 2026, and orforglipron approved in April 2026 with no food or water restrictions, making manufacturing and distribution simpler because it is a small molecule rather than a peptide. Monthly injections, such as MariTide and other long-acting formulations, are in development to reduce dosing frequency. Older oral drugs, such as orlistat, phentermine and naltrexone-bupropion, remain available. The shift toward oral options could expand treatment in primary care and in emerging markets where cold-chain storage and injection pens are barriers, although injectables are expected to remain important for patients needing the largest weight reductions. Adults with obesity and related health conditions account for most obesity drug use, while adolescents and patients with specific comorbidities such as heart disease, sleep apnoea and fatty liver disease form important and expanding groups. Adults with a body mass index of 30 or higher, or 27 or higher with at least one weight-related condition such as hypertension, dyslipidaemia or type 2 diabetes, are the main patient group for obesity drugs. Patients with established cardiovascular disease can use semaglutide to reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes following its March 2024 approval, which has supported coverage by some insurers and Medicare. Patients with obstructive sleep apnoea and obesity became eligible for tirzepatide in December 2024. Patients with MASH and liver fibrosis became eligible for semaglutide in August 2025. People with type 2 diabetes use the same molecules under diabetes brands such as Ozempic and Mounjaro, and many also have obesity. Adolescents aged 12 and older can use semaglutide and liraglutide for obesity, and paediatric obesity is a growing area of research. Patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, chronic kidney disease, osteoarthritis and polycystic ovary syndrome are being studied or treated. People with rare genetic obesity disorders use setmelanotide. Patients after bariatric surgery sometimes use obesity drugs to prevent weight regain, and some people who would have had surgery now choose drugs instead. Retail pharmacies account for the largest share of obesity drug distribution, while direct-to-consumer, telehealth and online channels have grown rapidly and become a major route for self-pay patients. Retail pharmacies dispense most prescriptions for obesity drugs covered by insurance, and pharmacy chains have partnered with manufacturers and telehealth providers to expand access. Direct-to-consumer channels operated by manufacturers, including LillyDirect and NovoCare Pharmacy, sell obesity drugs at lower cash prices, and both companies expanded these channels in 2025 and 2026, including through agreements with the US government. Telehealth platforms, such as Hims & Hers, Ro, WeightWatchers and Noom, prescribe obesity drugs online, often combining medication with coaching, and some sold compounded versions during shortages before the FDA restricted compounding. Online pharmacies deliver medicines to patients' homes. Specialty pharmacies and hospital outpatient clinics manage patients with complex conditions. Employer programmes and insurers have created specific obesity management programmes to control costs. In Europe and other countries with public health systems, obesity drugs are often prescribed through specialist weight management services with strict eligibility criteria, while private prescriptions account for a large share of use in the UK and elsewhere. In India, China and other markets with generic semaglutide, retail pharmacies and online platforms distribute low-cost versions. Regional Analysis North America leads the obesity drugs market by a wide margin because of high obesity prevalence, high drug prices, broad adoption of GLP-1 therapies and direct-to-consumer and telehealth channels, while Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region following the arrival of local and generic products. North America, led by the United States, accounts for the majority of global obesity drug revenue. More than 40% of US adults have obesity, and demand for Wegovy and Zepbound has been exceptionally strong, supported by employer coverage, direct-to-consumer sales and telehealth. Prices have fallen in the United States since 2024 through manufacturer cash-pay programmes and the November 2025 agreements with the US government, which also opened Medicare coverage for obesity treatment in 2026. The approvals of the Wegovy pill in December 2025 and Foundayo in April 2026 made the United States the first market for oral obesity drugs. Canada saw semaglutide patent protection lapse, opening the market to generics. Europe is the second largest market, with high demand in the UK, Germany and the Nordic countries, but public health systems restrict reimbursement, and many patients pay privately; the UK authorised orforglipron in August 2026. Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region, as obesity rises in China, India, Japan and Southeast Asia. China approved Wegovy in 2024 and Innovent's mazdutide in 2025, and semaglutide generics became possible after March 2026. India saw dozens of generic semaglutide launches immediately after patent expiry on 20 March 2026, with prices falling sharply. Latin America, particularly Brazil and Mexico, has high obesity rates and early generic entry in Brazil, while the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, has some of the world's highest obesity rates and strong demand for obesity drugs. Key Developments April 2026: Eli Lilly's once-daily small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist was approved for chronic weight management, the first oral obesity drug that can be taken without food or water restrictions. March 2026: Core semaglutide patents expired on 20 March 2026 in India, China, Brazil and other countries, and Indian manufacturers launched low-cost generic versions within days. December 2025: Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide 25 mg was approved for chronic weight management, becoming the first oral GLP-1 obesity drug and launching in January 2026. November 2025: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk agreed to lower prices for obesity drugs in Medicare, Medicaid and cash-pay channels, with Medicare coverage for obesity beginning in 2026. November 2025: Pfizer completed its acquisition of obesity drug developer Metsera after a bidding contest with Novo Nordisk, re-entering the obesity market. February 2025: The FDA announced that the shortage of semaglutide injections had ended, following a similar decision for tirzepatide in December 2024, restricting mass compounding of the drugs. Considered in this report • Historic Year: 2020 • Base Year: 2025 • Estimated Year: 2026 • Forecast Year: 2031 Aspects covered in this report • Global Obesity Drugs Market with its value and forecast along with its segments • Various drivers and challenges • Ongoing trends and developments • Top profiled companies • Strategic recommendation By Drug Class • GLP-1 Receptor Agonists • Dual GIP/GLP-1 Receptor Agonists • Other Incretin and Amylin-Based Therapies • Older Anti-Obesity Drugs • Treatments for Genetic Obesity By Route of Administration • Subcutaneous Injection • Oral By Patient Group • Adults with Obesity • Adults with Overweight and Comorbidities • Adolescents • Patients with Cardiovascular Disease, Sleep Apnoea or MASH By Distribution Channel • Retail Pharmacies • Direct-to-Consumer Channels • Telehealth and Online Pharmacies • Hospital and Specialty Clinics

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Sikandar Kesari

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