Canada Long Term Care Market Overview, 2031

Key Insights

• Canada's long-term care market is a significant component of the national healthcare system, serving a rapidly aging population. The combined annual cost of long-term care and home care in Canada is expected to reach $58.5 billion by 2031 nearly double the 2019 level of $29.7 billion. The market is supported by a network of 2,076 long-term care homes across the country.
• The Canadian population is aging rapidly. The population aged 75 and older is projected to grow by 80.8% by 2044 nationally. The number of Canadians aged 85 and older is expected to triple by 2073, creating sustained demand for long-term care services.
• There are approximately 200,000 long-term care beds in Canada. However, Canada could need an additional 199,000 long-term care beds by 2035, nearly doubling current capacity, even after accounting for efforts to shift more long-term care into individuals' homes.
• The long-term care workforce in Canada faces significant challenges. More than 50,000 healthcare providers work in LTC across Canada, including nurse practitioners, registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, registered practical nurses, occupational therapists, and physical therapists. However, the number of nurses working in long-term care has declined in recent years.
• Nearly 770,000 Canadians live with dementia as of September 2025, and prevalence is projected to increase by 66%, reaching 937,000 by 2031. In Canadian LTC homes, 60% of residents have a diagnosis of dementia nationally.

Market Outlook

• According to the Bonafide research report, "Canada Long Term Care Market Outlook, 2031," published by Bonafide Research, the Canada Long Term Care Market was valued at more than 21.6 Billion in 2025. This market is supported by demographic tailwinds, an aging population, and the continued expansion of home- and community-based services across the country.
• Canada's long-term care market is expected to benefit from sustained growth in the population aged 65 and older. The combined annual cost of long-term care and home care in Canada is expected to reach $58.5 billion by 2031 nearly double the 2019 level of $29.7 billion. The population aged 75 and older is projected to grow by 80.8% by 2044, with some provinces like Yukon and Alberta experiencing even faster growth at 140.0% and 116.4% respectively.
• The demand for long-term care beds is expected to significantly outpace supply. Canada could need an additional 199,000 long-term care beds by 2035, nearly doubling current capacity. The long-term care bed rate per 1,000 population aged 75+ has been decreasing in many provinces, as population growth has outpaced bed expansion.
• The shift toward home- and community-based services continues to reshape Canada's LTC delivery system. A 2024 survey by the National Institute on Ageing suggests most (80%) of Canadians aged 50 and older want to remain in their own home for as long as they can. In Ontario, the home-care population has grown by approximately 18% in the past two years, now exceeding 650,000 clients.
• The prevalence of dementia is a significant driver of long-term care demand. Nearly 770,000 Canadians live with dementia as of September 2025, and prevalence is projected to increase by 66%, reaching 937,000 by 2031. In Canadian LTC homes, 60% of residents have a diagnosis of dementia nationally.

Market Dynamics

Driver: Rapid Aging Population and Demographic Shift Canada is experiencing a significant demographic transformation that is fundamentally reshaping the long-term care landscape. The number of Canadians aged 75 and older is expected to double from 2022 to 2052 and triple by 2073. The 85-plus population, which has the highest per capita utilization of long-term care services, is set to triple by 2073, creating sustained demand for housing and care that can scale with intensity. The combined annual cost of long-term care and home care in Canada is expected to reach $58.5 billion by 2031 nearly double the 2019 level of $29.7 billion. Residents over 80 present higher rates of chronic disease, mobility limits, and dementia, shifting demand toward assisted living and memory care. The rapid growth of the 85+ age group creates sustained pressure on Canada's LTC delivery system and financing mechanisms. Nearly 770,000 Canadians live with dementia as of September 2025, with prevalence projected to increase by 66%. Long-term care demand is estimated based on 60 beds per 1,000 people aged 75 and over.

Challenge: Acute Workforce Shortages and Staffing Crisis Canada's long-term care market faces a persistent and intensifying workforce crisis that threatens service availability and quality. Canada is staring at an imminent crisis in terms of having enough trained care workers to support the country's ballooning population of senior citizens. Operators are grappling with an acute labor shortage, with an estimated 35,000 nursing vacancies nationwide. The chronic nursing shortage has worsened working conditions for nurses in long-term care and home and community-care, thereby creating challenges for recruitment and retention. The number of health care providers choosing to work in long-term care in Canada is shrinking. Licensed practical nurses employed primarily in long-term care dipped to 33,459 in 2023 from 35,644 in 2021, a decrease of 6.1%. During the same time period, registered nurses and registered practical nurses also experienced declines. Staffing shortages remain one of the most serious challenges facing seniors care sectors, with demand for nurses as strong as ever. Long-term care pays poorly and is chronically understaffed, so workers move on to other sectors. Without significant investment in workforce recruitment, training, compensation, and career development, Canada's LTC system will face increasing difficulty in meeting growing demand for care.

Trend: Shift Toward Home- and Community-Based Services A fundamental shift in long-term care delivery is occurring in Canada, with increasing emphasis on home- and community-based services to enable seniors to age in place. Most (80%) Canadians aged 50 and older want to remain in their own home for as long as they can. Government investments in home care and community care services are being prioritized to ensure seniors can age safely and independently in their own homes, reducing pressures on long-term care facilities. In Ontario, the home-care population has grown by approximately 18% in the past two years, now exceeding 650,000 clients. In Quebec, 395,700 people received home care services in 2024-2025, representing a 2.4% increase over the previous period, with a total of 38.2 million hours provided. However, approximately 1 in 11 newly admitted residents in long-term care potentially could have been cared for at home, indicating gaps in community-based care capacity. The accelerating shift away from single-family homes toward service-rich, age-in-place residences is deepening penetration rates in urban cores.

Policies

• The Government of Canada provides funding through the Canada Health Transfer and the Aging with Dignity bilateral agreements, which are absolutely key to supporting long-term care and caregiving across the country. The federal government has committed $60.2 million in 2025-26 to renew sunsetting funding for the Assisted Living Program.
• The Minister of Health and the Minister of Seniors were mandated to develop national long-term care standards and a Safe Long-Term Care Act. These standards provide guidance for delivering long-term care services that are safe, reliable and centred on residents' needs. The Canadian Standards Association Group and Health Standards Organization developed the standards with funding from Health Canada.
• Provinces and territories are estimated to spend approximately $34 billion on long-term care in Canada in 2024. Spending on residential care facilities, including nursing homes, grew from 9.2% in 1975 to 14.2% in 2024 of total public sector health expenditures. In Canada, about 78% of long-term care costs are publicly funded, while roughly 22% still comes directly from residents' pockets or private medical insurance.
• Among the 2,076 long-term care homes in Canada, 46% are publicly owned and 54% are privately owned (private for-profit 29%, private not-for-profit 23%, private no breakdown 2%). Public LTC homes consistently have higher staffing levels measured as hours of care per resident per day than non-profit and for-profit homes.
• Ontario introduced Bill 14, Support for Seniors and Caregivers Act, 2025, on May 8, 2025. If passed, Bill 14 will make amendments to the Fixing Long-Term Care Act, 2021 and the Retirement Homes Act, 2010, including requirements for organized dementia care programs, recognition of cultural and spiritual needs of residents, and new offences respecting abuse or neglect of residents.
• he Government of Ontario is continuing its ambitious long-term care construction campaign through the 2025 Long-Term Care Capital Funding Program. As of November 2025, 151 projects representing new and redeveloped beds are completed, under construction, or have ministry approval to construct.

Segment Analysis

Canada Long-Term Care Market By Service Type • Home Healthcare: Home healthcare represents the fastest-growing service segment in Canada's LTC market, driven by beneficiary preference for aging in place and government policies prioritizing home and community care. Home healthcare includes skilled nursing services, medication management, wound care, personal support services, and palliative care delivered in the patient's home. In Ontario, the home-care population has grown by approximately 18% in the past two years, now exceeding 650,000 clients. In Quebec, 395,700 people received home care services in 2024-2025, representing a 2.4% increase. Nearly one in four Canadians (23%) aged 50 and older who needed home care were unable to obtain it in 2025, indicating significant unmet demand.
• Nursing Care / Skilled Nursing Facilities: The nursing facility sector comprises approximately 2,076 long-term care homes across Canada, with approximately 200,000 long-term care beds. Among these homes, 46% are publicly owned and 54% are privately owned (private for-profit 29%, private not-for-profit 23%, private no breakdown 2%). In 2024-2025, 50.0% of LTC residents nationally were aged 85 and older, with an average age of 83. The sector faces significant capacity constraints, with Canada potentially needing an additional 199,000 long-term care beds by 2035, nearly doubling current capacity. Nursing facilities provide 24-hour nursing, medical and personal support services for Canadians with complex health conditions or physical needs.
• Assisted Living Facilities: Assisted living and supportive living are part of Canada's broader system of community care that includes services such as home care and assisted living. While all jurisdictions offer long-term care services, their scope and delivery may vary based on differences in health system structure, population size and age structure, and geographic distribution. The assisted living segment provides residential care for individuals who require assistance with daily activities but do not need 24-hour nursing care. Approximately 1 in 11 newly admitted residents in long-term care potentially could have been cared for at home, indicating the potential for expanded assisted living and supportive living options.
• Hospice and Palliative Care: Hospice and palliative care services in Canada are delivered across multiple settings, including long-term care homes, hospitals, and in-home care. With nearly 770,000 Canadians living with dementia as of September 2025 and prevalence projected to increase by 66% to 937,000 by 2031, the demand for end-of-life care services is expected to grow significantly. Palliative care is integrated into the broader continuum of long-term care services, with LTC homes providing a range of health and personal care services for people with medical or physical needs who require access to 24-hour nursing care.
• Other Services: This segment includes memory care facilities, adult day care, long-term rehabilitation services, and continuing care retirement communities. The need for long-term care services affects persons of all ages and is generally measured by limitations in an individual's ability to perform daily personal care activities. In 2024-2025, 24.6% of assessed LTC residents nationally were clinically complex, and 60% had a diagnosis of dementia. Memory care services represent a growing subsector within this segment, driven by the increasing prevalence of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias.

Canada Long-Term Care Market By Payer Type • Public: Public sources paid for the majority of long-term care spending in Canada. About 78% of long-term care costs are publicly funded. Provinces and territories are estimated to spend approximately $34 billion on long-term care in Canada in 2024. Spending on residential care facilities, including nursing homes, grew from 9.2% in 1975 to 14.2% in 2024 of total public sector health expenditures. Public LTC homes consistently have higher staffing levels than non-profit and for-profit homes. Public payers represent both the largest and fastest-growing payer segment.
• Private: Private sources account for a significant portion of long-term care spending. In Canada, about 22% of long-term care costs come directly from residents' pockets or private medical insurance. Among the 2,076 long-term care homes in Canada, 54% are privately owned (private for-profit 29%, private not-for-profit 23%, private no breakdown 2%). Private long-term care can be significantly more expensive, with private-pay long-term care running $8,500 per month on average nationally, and can exceed $18,000 in Metro Vancouver.
• Out-of-Pocket: Out-of-pocket payments represent a substantial component of long-term care spending. In Canada, about 22% of long-term care costs come directly from residents' pockets. Long-term care costs in Canada average $1,300 to $3,400 per month in subsidized homes, but private facilities can exceed $6,000 per month. In British Columbia, the maximum monthly rate for long-term care services (publicly subsidized) is $4,073.40 in 2025, while the minimum is about $1,466.20. In Ontario, as of July 2025, a basic room in a government-licensed LTC home costs $2,036.40 monthly, while a semi-private room costs $2,455.24 and a private room costs $2,984.48.

Canada Long-Term Care Market By Gender • Female residents account for the largest share of Canada's long-term care spending, driven by higher life expectancy and higher rates of disability in advanced age. Women are more likely to reach advanced ages where long-term care utilization is highest. Among older Canadians, women, people living alone, and those with poorer health were more likely to use supports and services. The use of home care and community support services was higher among women than men. Approximately 63% of the 80+ population is female, contributing to higher female representation in long-term care homes and assisted living communities. Female representation is particularly pronounced in the 85+ age group, which has the highest per capita LTC utilization.
• Male residents account for a smaller but growing share of Canada's long-term care spending. The need for long-term care affects persons of all ages and is generally measured by limitations in an individual's ability to perform daily personal care activities. Men are more likely to need long-term care at younger ages due to disabilities and chronic conditions. As male life expectancy increases, the representation of men in the 85+ cohort is slowly growing, which may gradually increase the male share of long-term care spending. The gender gap is gradually narrowing as male life expectancy increases.

Canada Long-Term Care Market Economics

• The cost of long-term care services varies significantly by service type, geographic location, and payer source. Long-term care costs in Canada average $1,300 to $3,400 per month in subsidized homes, but private facilities can exceed $6,000 per month. Private-pay long-term care runs $8,500 per month on average nationally, and can exceed $18,000 in Metro Vancouver.
• In British Columbia, the maximum monthly rate for long-term care services (publicly subsidized) is $4,073.40 in 2025, while the minimum is about $1,466.20. In Ontario, as of July 2025, a basic room in a government-licensed LTC home costs $2,036.40 monthly, while a semi-private room costs $2,455.24 and a private room costs $2,984.48.
• About 78% of long-term care costs are publicly funded, while roughly 22% still comes directly from residents' pockets or private medical insurance. The combined annual cost of long-term care and home care in Canada is expected to reach $58.5 billion by 2031 nearly double the 2019 level of $29.7 billion.
• Staffing costs represent the largest operating expense for all LTC providers. Public LTC homes consistently have higher staffing levels measured as hours of care per resident per day than non-profit and for-profit homes. Before the pandemic, residents in for-profit homes received nearly 50 fewer minutes of care per day than those in public homes. During the pandemic, public homes increased registered nurses hours of care per resident per day by 8% nationally and by 10% in Ontario.
• The economic value of home- and community-based services relative to institutional care is a key policy consideration. Approximately 1 in 11 newly admitted residents in long-term care potentially could have been cared for at home. The shift toward home and community care is expected to continue, driven by both beneficiary preference and the potential for cost savings compared to institutional care.


Considered in this report
• Historic Year: 2020
• Base year: 2025
• Estimated year: 2026
• Forecast year: 2031

Aspects covered in this report
• Long-term care Market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Service Type
• Home Healthcare
• Nursing Care / Skilled Nursing Facilities: 
• Assisted Living Facilities
• Hospice & Palliative Care:
• Other Services

By Payer Type
• Public
• Private
• Out-of-Pocket

By Gender
• Male
• Female