France Net-Zero Energy Buildings Market Overview, 2031

Key Insights

• According to the research report, "France Net-Zero Energy Buildings Market Outlook, 2031," published by Bonafide Research, the France Net-Zero Energy Buildings Market is expected to reach a market size of more than USD 5.58 Billion by 2031.
• France's net-zero energy buildings market presents a divided picture between strong solar deployment and a contracting heat pump market. Solar photovoltaic capacity increased by 6.1 GW in 2025, compared with 5.2 GW in 2024, bringing the national installed base to 31.3 GW at year-end. At the same time, heat pump sales weakened for a second consecutive year, with air/water heat pump sales declining 1.8% in 2025 according to Uniclima. This divergence highlights strong momentum in distributed renewable generation alongside weaker near-term demand for some building-heating technologies.
• The dominant country-specific driver is the combination of the loi Climat et Résilience rental restrictions and RE2020 new-build environmental requirements. Since January 2025, dwellings rated G on the Diagnostic de Performance Énergétique (DPE) in metropolitan France have been considered non-decent for rental purposes, with the restriction extending to F-rated dwellings from 2028 and E-rated dwellings from 2034. Around 520,000 rental homes were estimated to be G-rated in 2025, creating a substantial renovation requirement for landlords.
• A defining current trend is the continued expansion of solar photovoltaic deployment alongside efforts to electrify building energy use. France connected 6.1 GW of new solar photovoltaic capacity in 2025, compared with 5.2 GW in 2024, while installations below 9 kW represented 85% of new connection numbers but only 12% of newly connected capacity. This indicates that the market combines a large number of small distributed systems with substantial commercial, industrial, and utility-scale projects.
• Technologically, air/water heat pumps remain an important electrification technology, while geothermal heat pumps face more specialised deployment requirements. Uniclima reported a 1.8% decline in air/water heat pump sales and a 6.2% decline in geothermal heat pump sales during 2025. The market therefore continues to offer opportunities for heat pump manufacturers and installers, but deployment is being influenced by renovation economics, subsidy stability, installer availability, and project-specific technical conditions.

Market Outlook

• France's net-zero buildings market outlook diverges sharply by technology and building segment rather than moving as a single indicator. Solar photovoltaic deployment accelerated in 2025, with 6.1 GW of new capacity connected and cumulative capacity reaching 31.3 GW, while the heat pump market contracted. The proposed SNBC 3 provides a long-term policy direction for building decarbonisation, including a target of at least 8.8 million heat pumps in the residential building stock by 2030, alongside a broader objective of accelerating building renovation.
• New-construction activity remains structurally weak relative to historical levels, constraining the pipeline into which RE2020-compliant systems can be installed. Building permits issued between July 2025 and June 2026 totalled 376,241 dwellings, 8.0% below the average of the previous five years. This means that tighter RE2020 requirements are being applied to a smaller new-build pipeline, limiting absolute equipment volumes even as environmental and energy-performance requirements per project become more demanding.
• Renovation and retrofit demand is increasingly concentrated on lower-performing housing stock. At 1 January 2025, approximately 3.9 million of France's 30.9 million main residences, or 12.7%, were classified as F or G on the DPE. In the private rental sector, approximately 1.1 million homes were classified F or G, while around 520,000 rental homes were estimated to be G-rated. The phased rental restrictions therefore create a substantial multi-year incentive for landlords to improve building energy performance.
• Equipment and technology supply is adjusting to a market where policy stability and renovation economics remain important constraints on growth. Uniclima reported declines in several heating-equipment categories during 2025, including air/water and geothermal heat pumps, and highlighted the need for a stable and predictable regulatory and financial framework. At the same time, France's national decarbonisation strategy continues to support large-scale electrification of residential heating, creating a gap between long-term policy ambitions and near-term equipment sales.

Policies & Regulatory Landscape

• The Réglementation Environnementale 2020 (RE2020) is the central regulation governing new-build construction in metropolitan France, replacing the RT2012 framework from January 2022. It assesses energy performance, summer comfort, and the environmental impact of buildings across their lifecycle. From 2025, the maximum average construction-carbon indicator for individual or attached houses is 530 kg CO2e/m², compared with 640 kg CO2e/m² for 2022–2024, with further reductions to 475 kg CO2e/m² in 2028 and 415 kg CO2e/m² from 2031. For collective housing, the corresponding thresholds are 650, 580, and 490 kg CO2e/m².
• The loi Climat et Résilience governs the existing rental housing stock through a phased DPE-based rental restriction. Since 1 January 2025, G-rated dwellings in metropolitan France cannot be newly rented and are subject to restrictions when leases are renewed or tacitly renewed. The restriction extends to F-rated dwellings from 1 January 2028 and E-rated dwellings from 1 January 2034. The regulation applies to landlords and creates a long-term renovation driver for energy-inefficient rental properties.
• MaPrimeRénov', administered by the Agence nationale de l'habitat (Anah), remains the principal national subsidy programme for residential energy renovation. In 2026, the programme has a budget of €3.6 billion and is expected to support at least 120,000 large-scale renovations and 150,000 single-measure renovations. For large-scale renovation, eligibility is currently limited to homes rated E, F, or G, while the maximum eligible work amounts are €30,000 for a two-class improvement and €40,000 for an improvement of three or more classes. The 10% bonus for exiting the worst-performing housing category was removed.
• The Décret Tertiaire (Éco Énergie Tertiaire) regulates non-residential buildings with at least 1,000 m² of tertiary floor area separately from residential regulation. It requires covered buildings to reduce final energy consumption by at least 40% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and 60% by 2050 under the relative pathway, measured against an eligible reference period. Alternatively, compliance can be assessed through activity-specific absolute consumption thresholds. Building owners and tenants are required to report energy consumption through ADEME's OPERAT platform.

Net-Zero Energy Buildings Procurement & Industry Impact

• Public and institutional procurement is increasingly structured around regulatory energy-performance requirements rather than discretionary efficiency upgrades. MaPrimeRénov' directs significant residential renovation support toward E, F, and G-rated homes, while Décret Tertiaire creates mandatory energy-reduction and reporting requirements for qualifying commercial and institutional properties. This increases demand for energy audits, renovation planning, certified contractors, engineering support, and performance-monitoring capabilities.
• Equipment suppliers, particularly heat pump manufacturers, are navigating a domestic market that is weaker in the short term despite strong national decarbonisation objectives. The proposed SNBC 3 identifies at least 8.8 million residential heat pumps by 2030 and an objective of 1 million heat pumps produced in France by 2030. At the same time, Uniclima reported a 1.8% decline in air/water heat pump sales and a 6.2% decline in geothermal heat pump sales in 2025, demonstrating the gap between strategic policy targets and current market conditions.
• Solutions and services providers serving the non-residential segment face sustained compliance-driven demand distinct from the more volatile residential equipment market. Décret Tertiaire requires qualifying owners and tenants to monitor and report energy consumption through OPERAT, while meeting the 2030 reduction objective may require combinations of HVAC replacement, building controls, insulation, energy management, and operational optimisation. This creates opportunities for engineering firms, energy consultants, facility managers, and digital energy-management providers.
• Solar procurement is expanding across distributed and larger-scale segments rather than being concentrated in a single rooftop category. In 2025, France connected 6.1 GW of new photovoltaic capacity. Installations above 500 kW represented nearly one-third of newly connected capacity, while installations below 9 kW represented 85% of new connection numbers but only 12% of new capacity. This distribution indicates parallel growth in residential distributed generation and larger commercial, industrial, and utility-scale projects.

Industry News

• In July 2026, Enedis reported that renewable electricity covered 33.2% of metropolitan France's electricity consumption during 2025, while solar photovoltaic capacity increased by approximately 5.9 GW during the year within the broader renewable-energy statistics. Separately, SDES reported 6.1 GW of new photovoltaic capacity connected nationally in 2025, bringing cumulative solar capacity to 31.3 GW. This development is relevant to the French net-zero buildings industry because distributed and larger-scale solar deployment continues to expand the role of on-site and connected renewable generation.
• In February 2026, Uniclima published its 2025 market results showing that French air/water heat pump sales declined by 1.8% and geothermal heat pump sales declined by 6.2%. The association also highlighted the difficult conditions facing the climate-engineering market and called for greater stability and predictability in the regulatory and legislative framework. This development is relevant because it demonstrates that near-term heating-equipment demand remains sensitive to construction activity, renovation economics, and policy conditions.
• In February 2026, the French government and Anah confirmed the 2026 MaPrimeRénov' framework following adoption of the finance law. The programme has a €3.6 billion budget and is expected to support at least 120,000 large-scale renovations and 150,000 single-measure renovations. Large-scale renovation support is focused on E, F, and G-rated homes. This development is relevant because it concentrates public renovation resources on lower-performing residential properties.
• Since 1 January 2025, G-rated dwellings in metropolitan France have been subject to the first stage of the phased DPE rental restrictions. Government sources estimate approximately 520,000 rental homes were G-rated in 2025, although the number can change as properties are renovated and DPE methodology evolves. The restriction will extend to F-rated homes in 2028 and E-rated homes in 2034. This development is relevant because it creates a sustained regulatory incentive for landlords to improve the energy performance of rental properties.

Segment Analysis

Net-Zero Energy Buildings By Project Type
• New construction is governed directly by RE2020's progressively tightening energy and environmental requirements. For individual and attached houses, the construction-carbon threshold is 530 kg CO2e/m² for permits submitted during 2025–2027, compared with 640 kg CO2e/m² during 2022–2024. With building permits between July 2025 and June 2026 totalling 376,241 dwellings, 8.0% below the five-year average, developers are applying tighter environmental requirements to a relatively constrained construction pipeline.
• Renovation and retrofitting activity is driven by the phased DPE rental restrictions, the large stock of lower-performing homes, and public renovation support. Approximately 3.9 million main residences were classified F or G at the beginning of 2025, representing 12.7% of the main-residence stock, while around 520,000 rental properties were estimated to be G-rated. MaPrimeRénov' in 2026 focuses large-scale renovation support on E, F, and G-rated properties, reinforcing the concentration of renovation activity on inefficient housing.

Net-Zero Energy Buildings By Building Type
• Residential demand is shaped by the DPE-based rental restrictions, public renovation funding, and the long-term electrification of heating. French main residences include approximately 3.9 million F- or G-rated homes, while the residential heat pump strategy targets at least 8.8 million heat pumps in the building stock by 2030. This creates a substantial long-term opportunity for insulation, heating-system replacement, heat pumps, controls, and other energy-efficiency technologies even though near-term equipment sales remain uneven.
• Non-residential buildings face a distinct compliance framework through the Décret Tertiaire, which applies to qualifying tertiary buildings and requires progressive reductions in final energy consumption. The 2030 target is a 40% reduction under the relative pathway, while annual reporting through OPERAT creates an ongoing requirement for energy monitoring and documentation. This supports sustained demand for HVAC modernisation, building automation, energy management, insulation, energy auditing, and compliance services across offices, retail, institutional, and other tertiary properties.



Net-Zero Energy Buildings By Component
• Equipment demand shows a clear divergence between solar photovoltaic and heat pump technologies. France connected 6.1 GW of new photovoltaic capacity in 2025, while Uniclima reported declines of 1.8% in air/water heat pump sales and 6.2% in geothermal heat pump sales. The contrast demonstrates strong renewable-generation deployment alongside weaker near-term heating-equipment demand, with future equipment volumes dependent on renovation activity, policy support, installation capacity, and project economics.
• Solutions and services demand is increasingly concentrated on regulatory compliance, renovation planning, and building-performance management. MaPrimeRénov' large-scale renovation requires structured project support, while Décret Tertiaire requires annual energy-consumption reporting through OPERAT for qualifying tertiary buildings. These requirements support demand for energy audits, DPE and renovation advisory services, engineering, building-performance monitoring, energy management, and compliance reporting across both residential and non-residential markets.


Considered in this report
• Historic Year: 2020
• Base year: 2025
• Estimated year: 2026
• Forecast year: 2031

Aspects covered in this report
• Net-Zero Energy Buildings with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation



By Project Type
• New Construction
• Renovation & Retrofitting

By Building Type
• Residential
• Non-residential

By Component
• Equipment
• Solutions & Services