Middle East & Africa Christmas Tree Equipment Market Outlook, 2031

Market Drivers

• Jafurah Gas Expansion: The Jafurah unconventional gas development commenced production in December 2025 and is estimated to contain 229 trillion standard cubic feet of raw gas and 75 billion barrels of condensate, potentially the biggest shale gas development outside the United States. Saudi Aramco is targeting approximately 80% growth in sales gas production capacity by 2030 compared to 2021 levels, with expectations of more than one million barrels per day in high-value associated liquids production. The project has leveraged technology to reduce drilling and stimulation costs and boost well productivity, with early well performance described as outstanding. This development requires high-specification surface tree assemblies rated for high-pressure hydraulic fracturing operations and integrated completion systems compatible with horizontal drilling and multi-stage stimulation.
• ADNOC Unconventional Programme: ADNOC Drilling has drilled 83 wells of the 144-well Phase 1 unconventional programme, with 60-plus wells hydraulically fractured and prepared for production, and the Turnwell joint venture with SLB and Patterson-UTI delivering its first wells in under 16 days. The UAE holds an estimated 220 billion barrels of unconventional oil and 460 trillion cubic feet of unconventional gas in place, representing one of the world's largest undeveloped unconventional resource bases. ADNOC's target of 5 million barrels per day production capacity by 2027 and its $150 billion five-year capital programme ensure sustained demand for API 6A-certified surface tree assemblies across onshore and offshore fields.

Market Challenges

• Rig Count Decline: Saudi Arabia's oil rig count declined to 20 rigs in July 2025, the lowest level since February 2005, compared to 46 rigs in early 2024, reflecting a strategic shift from oil capacity expansion toward gas development and brownfield maintenance. Aramco cancelled the Safaniya and Manifa increment programmes following a government directive not to expand oil capacity beyond 12 million barrels per day, redirecting capital toward gas and unconventional resources. Nigeria missed its 2025 oil production target by 500,000 barrels per day, booking average daily crude oil production of around 1.5 million barrels against a government target of 2 million barrels per day.
• Deepwater Development Costs: Angola's deepwater projects require substantial capital investment, with Saipem securing an $850 million contract with Azule Energy for subsea works related to the Agogo Integrated West Hub Development covering approximately 60 kilometres of rigid pipelines and subsea facilities at the Ndungu field at a depth of 1,100 metres. The Kaminho deepwater project includes an FPSO vessel connected to a subsea production network with first oil expected in 2028. These frontier developments require high-specification subsea tree systems that significantly increase equipment cost and lead times compared to conventional shallow-water applications.

Market Trends

• Subsea Tree Standardisation: Angola's deepwater developments are increasingly adopting standardised subsea tree configurations, with the Kaminho project deploying a highly configurable platform equipped with a standardised vertical monobore subsea tree, wellhead and controls. TotalEnergies awarded a major subsea production contract to SLB OneSubsea for the Kaminho deepwater project including a 13-well subsea production system. Baker Hughes will supply deepwater horizontal tree systems for the Greater PAJ development in ultra-deepwater, greenfield conditions with operational capacity up to 10,000 psi and water depths of 10,000 feet. This trend reflects the industry's shift toward repeatable, standardised subsea tree designs that reduce engineering costs and accelerate project delivery.
• Artificial Intelligence Integration: Saudi Aramco is leveraging new technologies including AI and computational efficiency to enhance operations and prioritise health, safety and environmental stewardship. The company's use of walking rigs capable of moving short distances without dismantling and reassembling has accelerated drilling and well completions at the Jafurah basin, with U.S. and Chinese firms including Halliburton and Sinopec deploying advanced machinery. ADNOC Drilling achieved a 47% year-on-year cut in non-productive time driven by stronger drilling performance, with a technical reliability index of 0.52 and energy intensity of 2,298 GJ/$M beating targets. These digital and automation technologies are driving demand for Christmas tree equipment with integrated monitoring and remote operation capabilities.