South America Long Term Care Market Outlook, 2031

Market Drivers

• Accelerated demographic aging and rising care dependency: South America is undergoing one of the most rapid demographic transitions in the world, with the proportion of people aged 65 and above projected to increase from 10.4% in 2025 to 16.3% by 2050. Brazil's population aged 60 and above grew from 22.2 million in 2012 to 35.2 million in 2025, an increase of nearly 59% in just over a decade. Colombia's population aged 60 and above reached 8.17 million in 2025, representing 15.4% of the total population, with the ageing index rising from 7.3 in 1950 to 40.4 in 2021. Argentina's ageing index reached a record high, with 53 people aged 65 and above for every 100 people under 14 years of age. Chile currently has nearly four million older adults, projected to reach seven million by 2050. Peru's population aged 60 and above reached 5.05 million in 2025, representing 14.9% of the population. The prevalence of chronic conditions and functional limitations among these rapidly growing older populations creates sustained and intensifying demand for long-term care services across all care settings.
• Policy reforms and expansion of care systems: Governments across South America are implementing significant policy reforms to address the growing demand for long-term care. Brazil's National Care Policy, established by Law No. 15.069/2024 and regulated by Decree No. 12.562/2025, established the National Care Plan with 79 concrete actions across five strategic axes, including the prioritisation of elderly individuals requiring care and support for daily living activities. Colombia's CONPES 4143, approved in February 2025, establishes a National Care Policy with 133 actions implemented by 34 national entities over a ten-year horizon with an indicative budget of 25.6 trillion pesos. Chile's National Policy on Ageing and Old Age provides a framework for comprehensive care, with the Second National Survey of Long-Stay Establishments for Older Adults (ELEAM 2025) providing the first comprehensive national data on residential care. Argentina's INDEC published the Dossier Estadístico de Personas Mayores 2025, providing comprehensive demographic, economic, and health information to inform policy development. These policy developments are reshaping the financing, delivery, and regulation of long-term care services across the region.
• Shift toward home and community-based care: Across South America, long-term care delivery is increasingly shifting toward home and community settings, driven by the strong preference of older persons to age in place and the limited availability of institutional care. In Chile, 87% of older persons want to spend their final years at home, according to the Ministry of Social Development's Local Support and Care Network, yet the state's Home Care programme reaches only 2.9% of the target population. In Brazil, the National Care Plan prioritises home-based care, with the Ministry of Health's Home Care Program for the Elderly (Padi) established in December 2025 representing a significant step toward systematising home-based care for elderly individuals with stable chronic conditions or functional decline. In Colombia, the National Care Policy includes actions to strengthen community-based services and reduce the burden of unpaid care work on families and particularly on women. The convergence of demographic pressure, policy reform, and beneficiary preference is creating sustained demand for home healthcare services across the region.

Market Challenges

• Limited formal care infrastructure and heavy reliance on unpaid family caregiving: South America's long-term care infrastructure remains severely underdeveloped relative to the scale of the aging population. Brazil has approximately 7,000 long-term care institutions for the elderly (ILPIs) serving around 160,000 residents just 0.5% of the population aged 60 and above. In Chile, the total capacity of long-term care establishments covers only 10% of demand, with 97% of ELEAM being private, of which 55% are for-profit and 42% non-profit, while only 3% are public. Argentina has approximately 3,800 registered geriatric homes and residences nationwide, with nearly 600 in the city of Buenos Aires alone, the vast majority being privately operated. The region's long-term care sector is characterised by a heavy reliance on unpaid family caregiving, with nearly 90% of women aged ten and over participating in unpaid work and related activities in Colombia, compared with 65.2% of men. In Colombia, unpaid care work is estimated at 230.3 trillion pesos, representing 19.6% of GDP, according to DANE's Satellite Account of the Care Economy. This infrastructure deficit, combined with the heavy burden on families, creates significant access barriers and quality challenges across the region.
• Severe workforce shortages and precarious working conditions: South America faces a critical shortage of trained long-term care workers, with the demand for caregivers projected to double from 7.5 million in 2023 to 15.2 million by 2050, according to the International Labour Organization. The region's care workforce is characterised by precarious working conditions, limited training opportunities, and a disproportionate burden on women. In Brazil, the caregiving sector grew 74% over five years, with more than 57,000 new caregiving businesses opened in 2025 alone, yet the workforce remains largely informal and underqualified. In Colombia, 89.8% of women aged ten and over participated in unpaid work and related activities for September 2024 to August 2025, compared with 65.2% of men. In Chile, 52% of ELEAM owners considered closing their facilities due to rising operating costs, with 86% reporting an increase in operating expenses. In Argentina, 78.4% of home caregivers in the private sector work in informal conditions as of the third quarter of 2024, with only 10,497 caregivers registered in the National Registry of Home Caregivers as of August 2024. The lack of professionalisation, low wages, and limited career development opportunities contribute to high turnover and recruitment challenges across the region.
• Rising care costs and financial sustainability pressures: The cost of long-term care continues to rise across South America, creating significant financial sustainability challenges for both governments and households. In Chile, maintaining an older person in a long-term care facility costs between 650,000 and more than 1 million pesos per month, with financing depending primarily on families. In Brazil, private services for older adults are concentrated primarily in institutional residential models, while public home care programmes remain limited. The largely unregulated nature of the home healthcare sector means that families must navigate a complex landscape of private providers with costs varying significantly. In Argentina, private geriatric facilities require substantial out-of-pocket expenditure, with the average monthly cost of living for a retiree exceeding 1,200,523 pesos in December 2025. In Colombia, the National Care Policy has an indicative budget of 25.6 trillion pesos over ten years, yet the country does not currently finance sustained personal and social support through a single comprehensive national long-term care insurance programme. These cost pressures are compounded by limited public reimbursement rates, rising labour costs, and the absence of dedicated long-term care financing mechanisms across most countries.

Market Trends

• Technology adoption and digital transformation: South American countries are increasingly adopting technology to address workforce shortages and improve care quality. In Chile, the National Survey of Long-Stay Establishments for Older Adults (ELEAM 2025) represents the first comprehensive national data collection on residential care, providing a foundation for evidence-based policy development. In Brazil, the Ministry of Health's Home Care Program for the Elderly (Padi) includes provisions for telehealth and remote monitoring to support home-based care. In Colombia, the SmartCare Technologies project addresses healthcare accessibility for older adults with reduced mobility in the Karmata Rúa Indigenous community of Antioquia, providing a model for technology-enabled care in underserved areas. The use of geolocation and digital platforms to connect families with qualified caregivers is growing across the region, particularly in Brazil and Colombia. These technology investments are enabling the shift toward home-based care, improving care coordination, and enhancing the quality and safety of long-term care services.
• Growth of private sector investment in senior living: Private sector investment in senior living and long-term care is growing across South America, driven by favourable demographics and the recognition of long-term care as an investable asset class. In Brazil, the senior living market is expanding rapidly, with the number of long-term care institutions for the elderly (ILPIs) reaching approximately 7,000 in 2025, according to the National Front for the Strengthening of ILPIs. In Chile, 97% of long-term care establishments are private, with 55% for-profit and 42% non-profit, reflecting the privatisation of residential care. In Colombia, the National Care Policy through CONPES 4143 has created a strategic horizon through 2034, identifying the inequitable organisation of care as a national policy problem and establishing four broad objectives. In Argentina, new models of residences for older adults are emerging, focusing not only on services but also on building quality and technology, with luxury residences gaining market share. The "silver economy" is being recognised as a significant growth opportunity across the region.
• Expansion of community-based care models and integrated service delivery: The shift toward community-based care is accelerating across South America, driven by beneficiary preference, government policies, and the relative cost-effectiveness of home care. In Colombia, Bogotá's Communities of Care programme provides comprehensive care for more than 1,900 older adults through 20 Care Communities, with interdisciplinary teams supervising and accompanying users in basic activities of daily living and health procedures. In Brazil, Belo Horizonte initiated services for the elderly at CRAS centres in 2025, providing support to prevent family caregiver overload, with the programme accompanying more than 1,000 elderly people per year. In Uruguay, the National Care System is advancing toward universal coverage, with the Third National Plan on Ageing and Old Age being developed through a national co-creation process for the period 2025-2029. In Chile, the Local Support and Care Network of the Ministry of Social Development provides community-based services, though coverage remains limited. The convergence of government policy support, private sector investment, and technological innovation is creating the foundation for more comprehensive long-term care ecosystems across the region.

Policies

• Brazil's National Care Policy, established by Law No. 15.069/2024 and regulated by Decree No. 12.562/2025, established the National Care Plan with 79 concrete actions across five strategic axes. The plan was developed over more than one year with over 20 executive branch agencies and prioritises elderly individuals who require care and support for basic and instrumental activities of daily living. The Home Care Program for the Elderly (Padi), instituted by Ministry of Health Ordinance GM/MS No. 9.584 of December 22, 2025, represents a significant milestone in systematising home-based care for elderly individuals aged 60 years and older who are restricted to their homes and present stable chronic conditions or functional decline.
• Colombia's CONPES 4143, approved on February 14, 2025, establishes the National Care Policy with 133 actions implemented by 34 national entities, including 15 ministries, over a ten-year horizon with an indicative budget of 25.6 trillion pesos. The policy is structured around four strategic objectives: recognition and protection of community and collective care, improvement of the quality of life of caregivers, transformation of the social organisation of care, and strengthening of state capacity. The programme reaches approximately 4 million older adults through the Colombia Mayor social protection programme, providing a solidarity basic income.
• Argentina's INDEC published the Dossier Estadístico de Personas Mayores 2025, providing comprehensive demographic, economic, health, and technological information on the ageing population. The report confirms the feminisation of ageing, with women aged 75 and above representing almost 6% of the total female population compared with 4% of men. The National Institute of Social Services for Retirees and Pensioners (PAMI) operates a Programme of Comprehensive Care in Long-Stay Residences for Older Persons, with 563 private residences under agreement and five publicly owned long-stay residences, serving approximately 22,000 affiliated residents nationally.
• The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has published a series of policy synopses to guide the strengthening of long-term care in Latin America and the Caribbean, addressing person-centred care models, rights and needs of paid and unpaid caregivers, governance, and financing schemes. PAHO emphasises the need for models of care centred on the person and the community, outside the traditional institutional scheme, and has called for the professionalisation of the care workforce and the development of sustainable financing mechanisms.