China Long Term Care Market Overview, 2031

Key Insights

• China's long-term care market is undergoing a historic transformation as the country faces unprecedented population aging. As of the end of 2025, China had 323.38 million people aged 60 and above, representing 23.0% of the total population. The population aged 65 and above reached 223.65 million, accounting for 15.9% of the total population. The elderly dependency ratio reached 23.1%.
• The Long-Term Care Insurance system has achieved nationwide coverage. At the end of 2025, the number of insured persons reached 308.55 million, with 1.93 million people receiving benefits. The system has expanded from 15 pilot cities in 2016 to 92 cities, with cumulative fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan, benefiting more than 3.3 million disabled individuals.
• China's elderly care service infrastructure has expanded significantly. By the end of 2025, there were 395,000 elderly care institutions and facilities nationwide, with a total of 7.679 million elderly care beds. Among these, 39,200 were registered elderly care institutions with 4.984 million beds, of which nursing beds accounted for 69.9%.
• The home and community-based care sector is experiencing rapid growth. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 570,000 home-based elderly care beds were constructed, and 30 million home-based elderly care services were provided. The number of elderly meal assistance points reached 80,000 nationwide, serving more than 3 million elderly people daily.
• China's elderly care workforce faces a critical shortage. The number of elderly care service workers reached 1.395 million by the end of 2025. However, the caregiver shortage is estimated to exceed 5 million, with 85%–95% concentrated in the home and community sector.

Market Outlook

• According to the research report, "China Long Term Care Market Overview, 2031," published by Bonafide Research, the China Long Term Care Market is anticipated to grow at more than 6.88% CAGR from 2026 to 2031. This growth is supported by accelerating demographic aging, the nationwide rollout of the Long-Term Care Insurance system, and significant government investment in elderly care infrastructure.
• China's demographic trajectory is the primary driver of long-term care demand. The population aged 60 and above is projected to grow from 323 million to nearly 400 million over the next five years, with the care-dependent population increasing to over 40 million. The "15th Five-Year Plan" period represents a critical window for addressing the aging crisis.
• The nationwide establishment of the Long-Term Care Insurance system represents a historic policy breakthrough. In March 2026, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of the Long-Term Care Insurance System," officially launching the sixth social insurance system nationwide. The system will gradually cover the entire population, initially focusing on severely disabled individuals.
• The Long-Term Care Insurance market presents substantial growth opportunities. With insured persons reaching 308.55 million in 2025 and the system moving toward universal coverage, the annual market scale is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan. The number of designated long-term care insurance service institutions reached 13,000 in 2025, an increase of nearly 50% compared to 2024.
• The shift toward home and community-based care continues to reshape China's LTC delivery system. The "Opinions on Deepening the Reform and Development of Elderly Care Services," issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, strengthens the functional positioning of home, community, and institutional elderly care services, promoting the integration and coordination of these three service types. The document emphasizes that basic elderly care services should focus on the care of disabled elderly individuals.

Market Dynamics

Driver: Accelerated Demographic Aging and Rising Care Dependency China is experiencing the most rapid and large-scale population aging in human history. As of the end of 2025, China had 323.38 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 23.0% of the total population. The population aged 65 and above reached 223.65 million, representing 15.9% of the total population. The elderly dependency ratio reached 23.1%. Life expectancy reached 79.25 years. The population aged 60 and above is projected to grow from 323 million to nearly 400 million over the next five years, with the care-dependent population increasing to over 40 million. The "15th Five-Year Plan" period represents a critical window for addressing the aging crisis. China officially entered an aging society in 2001. This demographic transformation creates sustained demand for long-term care services across home healthcare, community care, nursing facilities, and assisted living settings. The growth of the oldest-old population, which has the highest per capita utilization of long-term care services, will further intensify demand.

Challenge: Severe Workforce Shortages and Caregiver Crisis China's long-term care market faces a persistent and intensifying workforce crisis that threatens service availability and quality. While the number of elderly care service workers reached 1.395 million by the end of 2025, the caregiver shortage is estimated to exceed 5 million, with 85%–95% concentrated in the home and community sector. The care-dependent population is projected to increase by over 8.5 million over the next five years. The elderly care workforce faces a critical talent gap, with caregivers under the age of 30 accounting for less than 2% of the workforce, and nearly 20% expressing intentions to leave their positions. Low wages, limited career development opportunities, and physically demanding working conditions contribute to high turnover and recruitment challenges. Without significant investment in workforce recruitment, training, compensation, and career development, China's long-term care system will face increasing difficulty in meeting growing demand for care, potentially leading to access constraints and service disruptions.

Trend: Nationwide Rollout of Long-Term Care Insurance and Integration of Care Services A fundamental shift in long-term care financing and delivery is occurring in China with the nationwide establishment of the Long-Term Care Insurance system. In March 2026, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of the Long-Term Care Insurance System," officially launching the sixth social insurance system nationwide. The system has expanded from 15 pilot cities in 2016 to 92 cities, with insured persons reaching 308.55 million and cumulative fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan, benefiting more than 3.3 million disabled individuals. The system will gradually cover the entire population, initially focusing on severely disabled individuals. The number of designated long-term care insurance service institutions reached 13,000 in 2025, an increase of nearly 50% compared to 2024. The system is promoting the integration of medical and elderly care services, with policies encouraging the extension of institutional elderly care services to communities and homes. Primary healthcare institutions are being supported to establish day care centers, community-embedded institutions, and home hospital beds, providing multi-level, differentiated institutional care, day care, and home care services. The integration of health and social care services is widely recognized as central to improving care coordination and service quality.

Policies

• The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of the Long-Term Care Insurance System" in March 2026, officially launching the sixth social insurance system nationwide. The system will gradually cover the entire population, initially focusing on severely disabled individuals. The overall goal is to "basically form a long-term care insurance system that adapts to China's economic development level and aging trend by 2030".
• The "Opinions on Deepening the Reform and Development of Elderly Care Services," issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, is the first guiding document on elderly care services issued in the name of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council. The document strengthens the functional positioning of home, community, and institutional elderly care services, promoting the integration and coordination of these three service types. It emphasizes that basic elderly care services should focus on the care of disabled elderly individuals.
• The Long-Term Care Insurance system has expanded from 15 pilot cities in 2016 to 92 cities, with insured persons reaching 308.55 million and cumulative fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan, benefiting more than 3.3 million disabled individuals. The system is promoting the integration of medical and elderly care services, with policies encouraging the extension of institutional elderly care services to communities and homes.
• The "National Long-Term Care Insurance Service Standards" have established 36 basic service items for life care and medical care, providing standardized and sustainable institutional guarantees for disabled elderly individuals. The system provides assistance with eating, bathing, and other daily living activities for disabled individuals.
• The Central Government has invested 900 million yuan to support 50 project areas in building home-based elderly care beds and providing door-to-door services. Primary healthcare institutions are being supported to establish day care centers, community-embedded institutions, and home hospital beds. The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw the cumulative construction of 570,000 home-based elderly care beds and the provision of 30 million home-based elderly care services.
• The government has established a three-tier urban-rural elderly care service network comprising county-level comprehensive elderly care service management platforms, township (street) regional elderly care service centers, and village (community) elderly care service facilities and stations. County-level public elderly care institutions cover 100% of counties, and 20,500 township (street) regional elderly care service centers have been established.
• The government has established a subsidy system for elderly individuals, with 53.538 million people receiving various elderly subsidies and allowances. The system includes disability care subsidies and other welfare benefits. The "15th Five-Year Plan" period will see the Long-Term Care Insurance system transition from pilot to full establishment, achieving new breakthroughs in institutional development.

Segment Analysis

China Long-Term Care Market By Service Type • Home Healthcare: Home healthcare represents the largest and fastest-growing service segment in China's long-term care market, driven by the strong preference for aging in place and government policies promoting home-based care. The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw the cumulative construction of 570,000 home-based elderly care beds and the provision of 30 million home-based elderly care services. The Central Government has invested 900 million yuan to support 50 project areas in building home-based elderly care beds and providing door-to-door services. Home healthcare services include personal care, nursing care, medication management, and support services delivered in the patient's home. However, the sector faces significant workforce shortages, with 85%–95% of the caregiver shortage concentrated in the home and community sector.
• Nursing Care / Skilled Nursing Facilities: The nursing facility sector in China comprises 39,200 registered elderly care institutions with 4.984 million beds. Nursing beds account for 69.9% of total beds. County-level public elderly care institutions cover 100% of counties. The sector includes both public and private institutions providing 24-hour nursing care, medical supervision, and personal assistance for elderly individuals with varying levels of dependency. The sector faces capacity constraints, with demand for nursing home places significantly outstripping supply in many regions. Policies are promoting the extension of institutional elderly care services to communities and homes.
• Assisted Living Facilities: Assisted living represents a growing segment in China's long-term care market. The elderly care service infrastructure includes community-embedded institutions and day care centers providing residential care for individuals who require assistance with daily activities but do not need 24-hour nursing care. The segment includes independent living, assisted living, and dementia care units. The number of elderly care institutions and facilities reached 395,000 by the end of 2025. The assisted living sector is expanding, with new facilities opening across the country.
• Hospice and Palliative Care: Hospice and palliative care services in China are delivered across multiple settings, including homes, nursing homes, hospitals, and dedicated palliative care units. Policies are promoting the development of a nursing service system covering acute illness diagnosis and treatment, chronic illness rehabilitation, stable period care, and end-of-life hospice care. The growing prevalence of chronic conditions and the aging population are driving demand for end-of-life care services. Palliative care is integrated into the broader continuum of long-term care services.
• Other Services: This segment includes day care centers, community-based services, home-based elderly care, and meal assistance services. The three-tier urban-rural elderly care service network comprises county-level comprehensive elderly care service management platforms, township (street) regional elderly care service centers, and village (community) elderly care service facilities and stations. The number of elderly meal assistance points reached 80,000 nationwide, serving more than 3 million elderly people daily. Day care centers provide social engagement and support for older adults, supporting the preference for home-based care. The need for these services is growing as families seek alternatives to full-time institutional care while maintaining caregiving responsibilities.

China Long-Term Care Market By Payer Type • Public: Public sources are the dominant payer for long-term care services in China, primarily through the Long-Term Care Insurance system. At the end of 2025, insured persons reached 308.55 million, with cumulative fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan. The system has expanded from 15 pilot cities to 92 cities. The system provides assistance with eating, bathing, and other daily living activities for disabled individuals. The government has established a subsidy system for elderly individuals, with 53.538 million people receiving various elderly subsidies and allowances. Public payers represent both the largest and fastest-growing payer segment as the Long-Term Care Insurance system moves toward universal coverage.
• Private: Private sources account for a growing portion of long-term care spending in China. Private elderly care institutions and facilities are expanding, with the private sector playing an increasingly important role in service delivery. Private long-term care insurance products are emerging as a growth segment. The private sector is expected to grow as the Long-Term Care Insurance system creates a more stable financing environment and as demand for premium services increases.
• Out-of-Pocket: Out-of-pocket payments represent a substantial component of long-term care spending in China. Families bear a significant financial burden for elderly care services not covered by public insurance. The Central Government has piloted consumption vouchers for moderately and severely disabled elderly individuals in seven pilot areas including Zhejiang, Shandong, and Chongqing, allowing families to directly offset service costs. Out-of-pocket payments vary significantly by service type, facility, and region.

China Long-Term Care Market By Gender • Female residents account for a larger share of China's long-term care spending, driven by higher life expectancy and higher rates of disability in advanced age. Women's life expectancy in China is higher than men's, and women are more likely to reach advanced ages where care dependency is highest. Women are more likely to live alone in old age, increasing their reliance on formal paid care services. The elderly care workforce is predominantly female. Female representation is particularly pronounced in the oldest age groups, which have the highest per capita care utilization.
• Male residents account for a smaller but growing share of China's long-term care spending. The need for long-term care affects persons of all ages and is generally measured by limitations in an individual's ability to perform daily personal care activities. Men are more likely to need long-term care at younger ages due to disabilities and chronic conditions. As male life expectancy increases, the representation of men in the older adult cohort is slowly growing. The gender gap is gradually narrowing as male life expectancy increases.

China Long-Term Care Market Economics

• The cost of long-term care services varies significantly by service type, geographic location, and facility ownership. The Long-Term Care Insurance system has cumulative fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan, benefiting more than 3.3 million disabled individuals. The system has reduced the financial burden on families by over 60 billion yuan. The number of designated long-term care insurance service institutions reached 13,000 in 2025.
• Public financing of long-term care is substantial and growing. The Long-Term Care Insurance system has expanded to 92 cities with 308.55 million insured persons. The system will gradually cover the entire population, with annual market scale expected to exceed 100 billion yuan. The government has established a subsidy system for elderly individuals, with 53.538 million people receiving various elderly subsidies and allowances.
• Staffing costs represent the largest operating expense for all long-term care providers. The elderly care workforce reached 1.395 million by the end of 2025. However, the caregiver shortage is estimated to exceed 5 million, with 85%–95% concentrated in the home and community sector. Low wages and limited career development opportunities contribute to high turnover and recruitment challenges. Caregivers under the age of 30 account for less than 2% of the workforce, with nearly 20% expressing intentions to leave.
• The economic value of home and community-based services relative to institutional care is a key policy consideration. Home care is generally less expensive than institutional care on a per-patient basis, and the shift toward home care is expected to continue. The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw the cumulative construction of 570,000 home-based elderly care beds and the provision of 30 million home-based elderly care services. The Central Government has invested 900 million yuan to support home-based elderly care.


Considered in this report
• Historic Year: 2020
• Base year: 2025
• Estimated year: 2026
• Forecast year: 2031

Aspects covered in this report
• Long-term care Market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Service Type
• Home Healthcare
• Nursing Care / Skilled Nursing Facilities: 
• Assisted Living Facilities
• Hospice & Palliative Care:
• Other Services

By Payer Type
• Public
• Private
• Out-of-Pocket

By Gender
• Male
• Female