Middle East & Africa Phosphatic Fertilizer Market Outlook, 2031

Market Dynamic

Market Drivers

• Strategic Capacity Expansion: Morocco's OCP Group is aggressively expanding phosphate fertiliser capacity from 15 million to 20 million tonnes annually by 2027, with an additional 9 million tonnes targeted by 2028. This positions Morocco to capture supply gaps created by China's export restrictions, securing its role as the world's largest phosphate exporter and stabilising African supply.
• African Food Security Imperative: Sub‑Saharan Africa's rapidly growing population and chronic soil fertility depletion create relentless demand for phosphate fertilisers. Governments across the region, supported by the African Development Bank's African Fertiliser Financing Mechanism, are prioritising fertiliser access through subsidy programmes and domestic blending initiatives, directly stimulating regional phosphate consumption.

Market Challenges

• Strait of Hormuz Closure: The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 has trapped one‑third of global seaborne fertiliser supply. Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 19 per cent of global DAP and MAP exports in 2025, has seen exports fall sharply, with only two phosphate‑laden vessels departing through the strait since late February. Ma'aden is now operating at partial capacity.
• Sulphur Supply Disruption: Middle East sulphur prices have surged approximately 35 per cent since the conflict escalated in late February. Since sulphur is a critical input for phosphate fertiliser production required to produce the sulphuric acid that processes phosphate rock this cost escalation directly increases production expenses for Moroccan and Saudi Arabian producers, ultimately raising export prices for African buyers.

Market Trends

• Indian Long‑Term Procurement Shift: India has signed a landmark five‑year agreement with Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden to secure 3.1 million tonnes per annum of DAP and NPS fertilisers. This multi‑year term supply reduces spot market availability for African buyers, forcing them to adopt structured procurement strategies, including advance booking and demand aggregation, to avoid supply disruptions.
• Moroccan TSP Expansion Priority: OCP Nutricrops is focusing its 9 million tonne capacity expansion primarily on triple superphosphate (TSP), with 4.5 million tonnes expected as early as 2026. TSP requires only phosphate rock and phosphoric acid, unlike DAP which depends on imported ammonia. This strategic shift reduces OCP's exposure to volatile international ammonia prices while expanding less‑ammonia‑intensive product lines.